By adding data from the NASA TIMED GUVI instrument, Newell et al., were able to expand the model to include the larger storm values of Kp of 8 and 9. The original model, based solely on DMSP data, was only reliable to Kp of 7. In 2013, Newell upgraded the OVATION Prime model so that it would more accurately capture large geomagnetic storms. Viereck (SWPC) implemented the model and developed the graphical products to run in realtime to create aurora forecasts. Machol and Redmon (NCEI) developed the real-time ovation model. In 2011, NOAA (NCEI and SWPC) developed a real-time version of the OVATION model to forecast the location and intensity of the aurora. T., (2012), Evaluation of OVATION Prime as a forecast model for visible aurorae, Space Weather, 10, 3, doi.org/10.1029/2011SW000746 Wing (2009), Diffuse, monoenergetic, and broadband aurora: The global precipitation budget, J. Geophys. When this occurs, there is no forecast lead time.įor more information on the OVATION model and aurora products, see: In those instances, an alternative estimate of the solar wind forcing, based on the current Kp geomagnetic index is used to drive the OVATION model. On occasion, the input solar wind data are either contaminated or unavailable. This relationship was validated by comparison with data from the Ultraviolet imager (UVI) instrument on the NASA Polar satellite(2). An estimate of aurora viewing probability can be derived by assuming a linear relationship to the intensity of the aurora. The model uses the solar wind velocity and interplanetary magnetic field measured at the L1 orbit position at 1.6 million km (1 million miles) upstream from earth as input and calculates three types of electron precipitation and the proton precipitation which strongly correlate with the aurora. The OVATION (Oval Variation, Assessment, Tracking, Intensity, and Online Nowcasting) model is an empirical model of the intensity of the aurora developed at the Johns Hopkins University, Applied Physics Laboratory by Patrick Newell and co-workers1. These links provide a discussion of the aurora phenomena and tips for the best opportunities to view aurora at various locations around the world. It is the only way for most people to actually experience space weather. It is closely related to the ground induce currents that impact electric power transition.įor many people, the aurora is a beautiful nighttime phenomenon that is worth traveling to arctic regions just to observe. The aurora directly impacts HF radio communication and GPS/GNSS satellite navigation. The aurora is an indicator of the current geomagnetic storm conditions and provides situational awareness for a number of technologies. The aurora does not need to be directly overhead but can be observed from as much as a 1000 km away when the aurora is bright and if conditions are right. The aurora is not visible during daylight hours.

Aurora can often be observed somewhere on Earth from just after sunset or just before sunrise. The sunlit side of Earth is indicated by the lighter blue of the ocean and the lighter color of the continents. The green ovals turn red when the aurora is forecasted to be more intense.

The brightness and location of the aurora is typically shown as a green oval centered on Earth’s magnetic pole. The two maps show the North and South poles of Earth respectively. The forecast lead time is the time it takes for the solar wind to travel from the L1 observation point to Earth. This product is based on the OVATION model and provides a 30 to 90 minute forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora. This is a short-term forecast of the location and intensity of the aurora.

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